Green Mountain Coffee Roasters
25.06.12 15:59
#201
thekey
Fans of Green Mountain ( $GMCR ) and Lots More
Fans of Green Mountain ( $GMCR ) and Lots More
Interview | SATURDAY, JUNE 23, 2012
http://online.barrons.com/article/...L_twm_fs#articleTabs_article%3D2
Purcell: We also like Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), which has been in Wall Street's doghouse. It is a classic razor-blade business model. But this stock has been plagued by growing pains and a perception that the razor blade will be competed away once the key patent expires. The stock is down now from $112 last September to $20 recently.
In some ways, Green Mountain has been a victim of its own success. Six years ago, this company was no more than a coffee wholesaler with $200 million in revenue. It then acquired Keurig, which makes the K-cup coffee machine, and single-handedly created a whole new category in single-serve coffee. The idea was to aggressively place coffee brewers in as many homes as possible and then drive the consumption of their Green Mountain-branded coffee and other partner brands through the system. The strategy is brilliant. We expect Green Mountain's revenue this year to reach $4 billion, and it generates more than a 15% return on invested capital.
There's been a lot of skepticism about this company, including from famed hedge-fund manager David Einhorn.
Purcell: In the past few months, the company's hyper-growth led to challenges in managing the distribution channel. A year ago, retailers couldn't get enough product. When Green Mountain was seeing 100% year-over-year growth, given the rapid increase in both the number of brands that they were putting through the system and the number of doors through which they were selling, they lost their ability to forecast and just recently they had to reduce their near-term growth expectations. But the point-of-sale data reveal that consumer purchasing is still very strong, suggesting that this is an inventory-management issue and not related to end demand.
Investors have short memories. This is the same management team that virtually created and now dominates what now is the fastest-growing category in the grocery channel. Today, Keurig is in close to 12 million homes, but that's only 13% of total coffee-drinking households in the U.S. Last year, single-serve coffee makers represented 50% of the dollar sales of all coffee/espresso makers.
So the idea is that if you buy a Keurig, you are going to use Green Mountain's coffee?
Purcell: You are going to use either Green Mountain's coffee or one of their partner brands, which are almost all the major brands in the country. So one part of the short thesis is with this patent expiring for the K-cup in September, there is going to be competition from coffee brands wanting to make their own K-cup, basically circumventing the Green Mountain distribution system.
That is grossly exaggerated and somewhat misunderstood. Green Mountain has multiyear agreements with most of the branded producers, including Dunkin' Donuts, Starbucks, and Caribou Coffee. And this is important; the value proposition to the branded partner is access to Keurig's installed base, distribution channels, and next-generation products that many of the brands likely wouldn't be able to replicate. The brands would rather ride on the gorilla's back than fight the 800-pounder. And, finally, the fact that Starbucks recently agreed to a multiyear contract, on the eve of this patent expiration, speaks volumes.
What's this stock worth?
Purcell: Today, it has a market cap of only about $3 billion and net debt of about $400 million. It trades at less than five times enterprise value to Ebitda, which is around $750 million, and nine times this year's earnings of $2.38 a share. So for a company that will grow its top line close to 50% this year and at a rate likely north of 20% for the foreseeable future, something has to give. It is rare you get a chance to own the category killer in the fastest-growing category at this kind of valuation. So we see a double from here, and we think the bears have it wrong.
Interview | SATURDAY, JUNE 23, 2012
http://online.barrons.com/article/...L_twm_fs#articleTabs_article%3D2
Purcell: We also like Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), which has been in Wall Street's doghouse. It is a classic razor-blade business model. But this stock has been plagued by growing pains and a perception that the razor blade will be competed away once the key patent expires. The stock is down now from $112 last September to $20 recently.
In some ways, Green Mountain has been a victim of its own success. Six years ago, this company was no more than a coffee wholesaler with $200 million in revenue. It then acquired Keurig, which makes the K-cup coffee machine, and single-handedly created a whole new category in single-serve coffee. The idea was to aggressively place coffee brewers in as many homes as possible and then drive the consumption of their Green Mountain-branded coffee and other partner brands through the system. The strategy is brilliant. We expect Green Mountain's revenue this year to reach $4 billion, and it generates more than a 15% return on invested capital.
There's been a lot of skepticism about this company, including from famed hedge-fund manager David Einhorn.
Purcell: In the past few months, the company's hyper-growth led to challenges in managing the distribution channel. A year ago, retailers couldn't get enough product. When Green Mountain was seeing 100% year-over-year growth, given the rapid increase in both the number of brands that they were putting through the system and the number of doors through which they were selling, they lost their ability to forecast and just recently they had to reduce their near-term growth expectations. But the point-of-sale data reveal that consumer purchasing is still very strong, suggesting that this is an inventory-management issue and not related to end demand.
Investors have short memories. This is the same management team that virtually created and now dominates what now is the fastest-growing category in the grocery channel. Today, Keurig is in close to 12 million homes, but that's only 13% of total coffee-drinking households in the U.S. Last year, single-serve coffee makers represented 50% of the dollar sales of all coffee/espresso makers.
So the idea is that if you buy a Keurig, you are going to use Green Mountain's coffee?
Purcell: You are going to use either Green Mountain's coffee or one of their partner brands, which are almost all the major brands in the country. So one part of the short thesis is with this patent expiring for the K-cup in September, there is going to be competition from coffee brands wanting to make their own K-cup, basically circumventing the Green Mountain distribution system.
That is grossly exaggerated and somewhat misunderstood. Green Mountain has multiyear agreements with most of the branded producers, including Dunkin' Donuts, Starbucks, and Caribou Coffee. And this is important; the value proposition to the branded partner is access to Keurig's installed base, distribution channels, and next-generation products that many of the brands likely wouldn't be able to replicate. The brands would rather ride on the gorilla's back than fight the 800-pounder. And, finally, the fact that Starbucks recently agreed to a multiyear contract, on the eve of this patent expiration, speaks volumes.
What's this stock worth?
Purcell: Today, it has a market cap of only about $3 billion and net debt of about $400 million. It trades at less than five times enterprise value to Ebitda, which is around $750 million, and nine times this year's earnings of $2.38 a share. So for a company that will grow its top line close to 50% this year and at a rate likely north of 20% for the foreseeable future, something has to give. It is rare you get a chance to own the category killer in the fastest-growing category at this kind of valuation. So we see a double from here, and we think the bears have it wrong.
25.06.12 18:36
#202
thekey
Bin sehr positiv bzgl. GMCR!
Sehr stark in einem sehr schwachen Gesamtmarkt!
Könnte das positive Signal sein auf das mehrere Personen gewartet haben.
Bin sehr positiv bzgl. GMCR!
Könnte das positive Signal sein auf das mehrere Personen gewartet haben.
Bin sehr positiv bzgl. GMCR!
27.06.12 11:08
#204
fliege77
wieso sinkt Green Mountain weiter?
Wenn ich mir die Fundamentaldaten ansehe, dann ist GMCR weiterhin sehr stark. Patentschutz hin oder her, dürfte keinen Einfluß haben auf Umsatz und Gewinnentwicklung
27.06.12 17:26
#205
thekey
Cafe von GreenMountain
Ich glaube auch selbst wenn die Patente der K Cups im September auslaufen werden , wird es zwar zu Umsatzverlusten kommen aber diese werden meiner Meinung nach nicht extrem sein.
Wenn man seit Jahren den Cafe von GreenMountain gewöhnt ist , dann wechselt man nicht so leicht, das ist wie mit der Zigarettensorte imo
Bei einer Senseo Pad Maschine sind die Senseo Pads einfach die besten im vergleich zu all den anderen imo.
Wenn man seit Jahren den Cafe von GreenMountain gewöhnt ist , dann wechselt man nicht so leicht, das ist wie mit der Zigarettensorte imo
Bei einer Senseo Pad Maschine sind die Senseo Pads einfach die besten im vergleich zu all den anderen imo.
27.06.12 19:16
#207
thekey
CK8JSJ
Wer nicht in die Aktie investieren will sollte sich den Knock Out Call mal anschauen.
Aktueller Kurs Euro 2.66
CK8JSJ
Aktueller Kurs Euro 2.66
CK8JSJ
27.06.12 20:50
#208
thekey
Shorties
Glaube die Shorties werden den Kampf hier früher oder später aufgeben müssen!
Short Interest
Current Month (Mil) 23.25
Previous Month (Mil) 23.57
Short Interest
Current Month (Mil) 23.25
Previous Month (Mil) 23.57
29.06.12 16:42
#209
thekey
GMCR 19.7% of the float are shorted shares!
GMCR 19.7% of the float are shorted shares! Rumor:SBUX has GMCR on radar for a buyout!
Shares Out (Mil) 155.35
Float (Mil) 118.00
Short Interest
Current Month (Mil) 23.25
Previous Month (Mil) 23.57
Short Interest Ratio (Days) 4.30
http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/nasdaq/...sters/gmcr/key-statistics
Shares Out (Mil) 155.35
Float (Mil) 118.00
Short Interest
Current Month (Mil) 23.25
Previous Month (Mil) 23.57
Short Interest Ratio (Days) 4.30
http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/nasdaq/...sters/gmcr/key-statistics
29.06.12 16:46
#210
thekey
motley's says
motley's says this: Starbucks goes green
Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX ) has been known for its retail coffee shops for years but has been looking for ways to enter our kitchens as well. VIA has sold well, but the instant coffee doesn't have the same cache as a home brew, which is where Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq: GMCR ) comes in. The Keurig maker has multiyear deals with Starbucks and Dunkin' Brands as well as a number of brands of its own and has a foothold in millions of homes around the country.
Green Mountain has been able to grow like a weed by offering a simple single-serving system to customers in the home. With a stock price that's plummeted, I think this is the perfect time for Starbucks to pounce.
If we figure even a 50% premium from today's price, Starbucks could buy Green Mountain Coffee Roasters for about $4.5 billion and get a steal. The company has had $3.5 billion in sales in the last four quarters and earned $329 million, or $2.15 per share over the same time. A price around $30 per share would still only be 14 times trailing earnings. Starbucks could mitigate the risk of lost revenue and expiring patents that have hurt Green Mountain's sales and use its combined distribution muscle to expand the reach of K-Cups.
Not only is Green Mountain a good strategic fit, the price is right if Starbucks pounces right now.
Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX ) has been known for its retail coffee shops for years but has been looking for ways to enter our kitchens as well. VIA has sold well, but the instant coffee doesn't have the same cache as a home brew, which is where Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq: GMCR ) comes in. The Keurig maker has multiyear deals with Starbucks and Dunkin' Brands as well as a number of brands of its own and has a foothold in millions of homes around the country.
Green Mountain has been able to grow like a weed by offering a simple single-serving system to customers in the home. With a stock price that's plummeted, I think this is the perfect time for Starbucks to pounce.
If we figure even a 50% premium from today's price, Starbucks could buy Green Mountain Coffee Roasters for about $4.5 billion and get a steal. The company has had $3.5 billion in sales in the last four quarters and earned $329 million, or $2.15 per share over the same time. A price around $30 per share would still only be 14 times trailing earnings. Starbucks could mitigate the risk of lost revenue and expiring patents that have hurt Green Mountain's sales and use its combined distribution muscle to expand the reach of K-Cups.
Not only is Green Mountain a good strategic fit, the price is right if Starbucks pounces right now.
29.06.12 16:49
#211
thekey
$21.40 sehe ich hier als keybreak
$21.40 sehe ich hier als keybreak an , da sich dort aktuell die 20er Tageslinie befindet!
13.07.12 15:40
#215
Mucktschabernat
Das Geld
hättste lieber mir gegeben, dann wärs noch da.
Jetzt krachts sowas von gewaltig runter, ich schätze mal in Kürze gibts ne Kaffee-Klitsche weniger auf dem Kurszettel in NY.
Jetzt krachts sowas von gewaltig runter, ich schätze mal in Kürze gibts ne Kaffee-Klitsche weniger auf dem Kurszettel in NY.
16.07.12 18:56
#217
onkel james
Neues Jahrestief !
Am Freitag gabs ne VK Empfehlung mit KZ 14 Dollar,
begründet mit deutlich weniger Gewinn für 2013!
Sieht nicht gut aus...
begründet mit deutlich weniger Gewinn für 2013!
Sieht nicht gut aus...
17.07.12 07:16
#220
onkel james
@U300372
Analysten erwarten einen Gewinnrückgang auf 1,8 Dolllar für 2013
Bei aktuellen Kurs also KGV von 10.
Für ein rückläufiges Unternehmen m.M. nach Kurs noch deutlich zu hoch.
Bei aktuellen Kurs also KGV von 10.
Für ein rückläufiges Unternehmen m.M. nach Kurs noch deutlich zu hoch.
17.07.12 08:20
#221
Trinkfix
Shortszenario aktiviert!
von Christian Stern
Montag 16.07.2012, 20:40 Uhr Download -
+ Green Mountain Coffee Roasters - Kürzel: GMCR - ISIN: US3931221069
Börse: Nasdaq in USD / Kursstand: 18,44 $
Hier gehts zur Analyse vom 13.07.2012!
Bereits am Freitag haben wir weiter abfallende Kurse in der Aktie favorisiert. Mit den heutigen Abschlägen, schlechtester Wert im Nasdaq100-Index, bestätigt sich dieses Szenario weiter.
Ziel der Bären könnte eine Unterstützung bei rund 15,00 $ sein. Dort muss sich dann zeigen, ob Käufer zurück in den Markt finden können. Short-Positionen sollten am Widerstand bei 21,77 $ oder über dem Hoch bei rund 25,00 $ abgesichert werden.
Kursverlauf vom 17.04.2012 bis 16.07.2012
Montag 16.07.2012, 20:40 Uhr Download -
+ Green Mountain Coffee Roasters - Kürzel: GMCR - ISIN: US3931221069
Börse: Nasdaq in USD / Kursstand: 18,44 $
Hier gehts zur Analyse vom 13.07.2012!
Bereits am Freitag haben wir weiter abfallende Kurse in der Aktie favorisiert. Mit den heutigen Abschlägen, schlechtester Wert im Nasdaq100-Index, bestätigt sich dieses Szenario weiter.
Ziel der Bären könnte eine Unterstützung bei rund 15,00 $ sein. Dort muss sich dann zeigen, ob Käufer zurück in den Markt finden können. Short-Positionen sollten am Widerstand bei 21,77 $ oder über dem Hoch bei rund 25,00 $ abgesichert werden.
Kursverlauf vom 17.04.2012 bis 16.07.2012
24.07.12 21:32
#224
skoink77
Als antizyklischer Value-Anleger...
Hallo zusammen,
ich kannte bis Mitte letzten Jahres das Unternehmen nicht einmal - da wurde ich von jemanden bei Kursen um 100$ darauf aufmerksam gemacht. Damals war diese Aktie der Inbegriff einer Blase für mich; ähnlich wie der Facebook-Börsengang.
JETZT allerdings bekommen ich für 0,80$ Aktien gut 1$ Umsatz und da ich davon ausgehe, das jedes Unternehmen versucht, eine positive Marge zu erzielen, ist das tatsächlich mal ein Kursniveau, bei dem ich die Aktie kaufen würde. Auch die nach wie vor hohe Short-Quote der Aktie (gut 20% vom Free-Float) spricht eher für eine Erholung.
Ich wünsche Euch viel Erfolg hoffe, Ihr seid nicht schon vor einem Jahr eingestiegen ;o)
ich kannte bis Mitte letzten Jahres das Unternehmen nicht einmal - da wurde ich von jemanden bei Kursen um 100$ darauf aufmerksam gemacht. Damals war diese Aktie der Inbegriff einer Blase für mich; ähnlich wie der Facebook-Börsengang.
JETZT allerdings bekommen ich für 0,80$ Aktien gut 1$ Umsatz und da ich davon ausgehe, das jedes Unternehmen versucht, eine positive Marge zu erzielen, ist das tatsächlich mal ein Kursniveau, bei dem ich die Aktie kaufen würde. Auch die nach wie vor hohe Short-Quote der Aktie (gut 20% vom Free-Float) spricht eher für eine Erholung.
Ich wünsche Euch viel Erfolg hoffe, Ihr seid nicht schon vor einem Jahr eingestiegen ;o)